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This is my chance to be completely wrong about the coming year, and have is saved forever on the interweb!
 I don't know about you, but 2007 was a rough year for me. I've had to look at Kentucky Sen. Mitch McConnell on television a few too many times for my taste. Lets hope the rest of Kentucky agrees with me. In the beginning, I was fresh from the loss of the 2006 primary election season, fresh from the win of the Democrats of both houses of Congress.
During this time period I had changed my place of residence, reduced myself to being a single-car-household, fulfilled about 50% of last year's resolutions but still paining about the remaining 50%.
So, I, like everyone else, was ready for a smooth 2007.
Of course, no one got what they wanted...except some oil guys and a few Republicans.
(is there a difference?)
Who knew that the immediate years before 2007 would so finely dictate the events of the year? We're still, to this day, talking about the unfinished work from hurricane Katrina. We still have far too many troops in Iraq, and too few in Afghanistan. We're still talking about the millions on uninsured Americans, and the hundreds of thousands of homeless...many of whom are veterans. Did anyone else notice how North Korea sort of dropped off the radar after they test-detonated their first nuclear weapon? How many in America would have guessed that by the end of 2007, the "threat of Iran" would be largely disproven, and that Pakistan would be destabilized to the point of martial law, threatened elections, and political assassinations?
The Bush administration is still talking about "progress" in Iraq, waving numbers about "dropping violence", never mentioning the utter political failure that our 30,000 additional troops bought the Iraqi government time to correct. This is a classic case where American military forces held up their end of the bargain, only to be let down by the political leaders in 2 countries.
2008 brings the prospect of choosing a new U.S. President, but there's still enough time left for the current one to do plenty of damage. The Democrats don't have enough in the way of numbers to stop Bush and his plans for the future at every turn, so they have to be very selective about the battles they pick. This frustrates the hell out of people like me, but I have the rare point of view of understanding why it has to be this way...for now. The downside of this is easy: The Democrats might lose the public in the process. But if they don't, one can expect a fairly fast exit from Iraq, and end to the tax-cuts-for-the-rich, a radical change in foreign policy, the refinement of SCHIP, and most importantly: A better understanding about what the Bush White House and neoconservative houses of Congress actually did and didn't do. When, where, what. By 2010, Watergate will be a footnote instead of a headline. It's a safe bet 2008 will bring some sort of further destabilization in the middle-east. Could it be Israel attacking Iranian "nuclear facilities"? Could it be some disaster in Palestine, either real or imagined? Could it be still more attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere that will raise the price of gasoline even higher? Could Pakistan devolve into civil war, and become the first nuclear-armed, Islamic state? The answer to any of these questions could easily be 'yes' in 2008. However, when discussing the middle east, no-one is capable of making good predictions.
In the U.S., I predict that The Republican nomination will come down to Willard "Mitt" Romney, and Mike Huckabee. Long time readers will know I have been warning about the rise of Huckabee for over a year...and I was laughed at for almost the whole time. The last few weeks have proven me very correct, and yes, I am gloating. Will Huckabee be able to actually pull off the nomination? I can't say. I put his odds at 50%. There must be something in that Hope, Ak. water.
On the Democratic side, I can't see this coming down to anyone other than Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. I'm gonna go WAY out on a limb with this one. I predict that Hillary will win all the primary states except one. I have no idea which, but it'll be one of the top 4, and probably not Iowa or New Hampshire. Obama will lose by much wider margins than expected, and Hillary will go on to win the nomination. For her running mate, I put the odds at 50% for either Gen. Wes Clark or Sen. Evan Bayh. And no matter who wins the Republican nomination, I am betting that they'll fall to the Clinton machine like all others have before.
I predict that the Democrats will pick up at least 2 seats in the Senate, on of them being Sen. Mitch McConnell's at the hands of Democrat (Ret.) Lt. Col. Andrew Horne. For the first time in a generation, we have people facing down the politicians whose votes directly impacted their lives. Exciting stuff!
I predict that the Supreme Court of the United States will continue to vote away established rights and liberties under the guise of "constructionism". But don't worry about Roe v. Wade. They're never going to overturn that. What else would "social conservatives" have to run on? Gay Marriage is a bit played out. I predict that Kentucky will face harsher times in 2008 than anyone realizes, and this is as Gov. Steve Beshear begins to unravel the mess left over by the former administration of Republican Ernie Fletcher. We're facing a budget crisis. Casino gambling will help somewhat, but what we really need is to bring big business back into the state. We've taxed out or ran out tobacco, and liquor. We have dozens of medium sized companies stationed here, but this is due to a slightly lower cost of operations, which could change to Mexico at any moment. We are STILL facing an education crisis here. Will any of this change? As always, it depends on dollars. Will Kentuckians put up with a much needed tax raise? I say yes, as long as the dollars are spent in a populist manner. If people can see results, then yes, they will support it. Even if it's just an income tax hike on households making over $100,000 per year, the state would be flooded with much needed cash. It takes about 10 years for this to happen, but higher taxes eventually leads to better roads, more police, less crime, a more stable society, and more money in the pockets of the people. I know that seems counter-intuitive, but think back to 1998.
I predict Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway will get the "Internet Crimes Department" he campaigned on, so things like "To Catch A Predator - Kentucky" will become more commonplace. I also predict that Conway will eventually indict former Gov. Ernie Fletcher or members of his staff for as-of-yet-uncovered crimes.
I predict that the situation in Iraq will start to heat up again as the 2008 election approaches, and of course the Republcians will try to use it as a campaign gimmick. The question on this one is: Will the public buy it this time? I am betting no.
I don't give a damn about sports so no predictions there. But I am betting that at least the "Transformers" and "300" movies take home technical Oscars.
Who knows if any of this will happen, but this is how I am reading the tea leaves now. This could all change tomorrow, of course, and I am open to that. But it'll be interesting to see how this holds up over time.
I'd love to get some feedback on this one.
-Chuck
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I hope you are wrong about Clinton winning for the Dems. I have written about why she is unlikely to take Iowa here: http://kyfriedpolitics.blogspo...-iowa.html and I think that still holds up. She may even come in 3rd.
Yes, the Clinton years were better by far than what followed, but they weren't good enough. We need a bigger change for this country than Hillary represents.
Edwards, who has the most progressive platform of any of the top 3, MUST win Iowa to have a shot at the presidency. I predict that some combination of Obama/Edwards or Edwards/Obama ticket will win in '08. The former is more likely, but I would prefer the latter because economic justice is my most pressing social issue.
As for Senate predictions, you are lowballing the total. Unless the Dems royally screw up (Alas! Always a possibility!), they should pick up 5 not even counting Horne. They have an outside chance of picking up the 10 necessary to be filibuster proof--less likely than it looked a couple of months ago, but a real possibility, nonetheless. Horne is one reason for that outside possibility. So is Rick Noriega of Texas.
Dems will also increase their lead in the House, but I doubt it will be enough to be veto proof, so we BETTER win the White House!
Here's my out on a limb prediction: Progressives will finally force impeachment hearings for Bush/Cheney in the Judiciary Committee, but Pelosi will continue to squash an impeachment resolution, knowing that we don't have the votes in the Senate to convict. (The only way that could change is if the destroyed torture video explodes and we start seeing indictments!) The hearings, however, will get Bush nervous and he'll start passing out pardons like Halloween candy--and that will really piss voters off and seal the fate of the GOP for several years.
Bush will try at least once more to start a war with Iran.
Iraq killings will heat back up since the "surge" was temporary and unsustainable and this will put Iraq straight back into the center of the election.
BTW, I like the reason for the title for this site. I was working for a peace organization on "Black Wednesday," and, for the first time in my life, I actually thought about moving to Canada. I come from a military family tradition and served in the army myself before becoming a C.O. I have never been ashamed to be an American until these last 7 years. I saw Black Tuesday of '04 as the day we said "ok." to Abu Ghraib, to preemptive wars based on lies, and all the rest. I stayed depressed until mid-way through '06.